I Called the Future (Here's the Proof)
I predict, I prosper, and now I dunk on the haters
"When you're right, no one remembers. When you're wrong, no one forgets." — Muhammad Ali
Well, since most of you all most likely forgot my predictions (which were correct) I’ll have to remind you.
In February of this year I wrote an article (see here) that predicted the following
The Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates until Q4 of 2024 (cut in September so a few days early so basically ✅)
The Stock Market will continue to grow throughout 2024 (S&P 500 currently up 25% YTD ✅)
The Real Estate market will continue to go up as demand pressures increase (All Real Estate ETFs are positive and some upwards of 20+% ✅)
Bitcoin will surpass $100k USD (Bitcoin has hit $99.5k so I imagine the way things are going this will happen soon or maybe by the time I hit publish ✅)
How did I know the Fed was not going to cut until Q4?
Well… I listened and I watched the market continually be wrong. Throughout Jerome Powell’s time as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, many market watchers have analyzed his tone like he is trying to hide a message. I have taken what he has said at face value: “Higher for longer”. Powell has said numerous times that his inspiration as Fed Chair is former Fed Chair Paul Volcker who was credited for ending high levels of inflation with his policies.
Now, I believe Powell was pressured to cut interest rates at the time he did because of the election which at the time of the first cut was just two months away. Now, I do not believe inflation is fully handled and you can tell based on this chart from govflation dot com below.
This chart shows CPI calculated based on the basket of goods that was used in 1982. Since that date, the basket of goods has been changed 3 times (1987, 1998, and 2023). The basket of goods was also changed prior to 1971 when the US came off the gold standard in 1953 and 1964. Either way, since the initial change after coming off the gold standard in the month of August the US was still at 10.3% inflation year over year.
Does double digit inflation seem like things are under control to you?
I’m sure you know what my answer is. But on the flip side, I believe the government knows that the economy is NOT in a great space and that is why many, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, are pushing for a drastic decrease of the federal funds rate a.k.a interest rates. Elizabeth Warren was PLEADING to Jerome Powell to lower interest rates by 75 basis points (bps for the kids at home) which would be the LARGEST CUT IN HISTORY. Instead, Powell cut by 50 bps which was… checks notes… the LARGEST CUT IN HISTORY.
This is a sign that the Fed is prioritizing the potential of a recession opposed to fighting inflation. The problem is not stopping inflation can cause a recession. To avoid a future recession, I believe the Fed will then print money and go through massive QE (quantitative easing). The rate cuts ON TOP of money printing will send asset prices off to the races.
Stay tuned for 2025 predictions at the beginning of next year.
The S&P 500 has had another record year.
The S&P 500 has been PUMPING and it is not slowing down.
In 2020 the S&P 500 was up 20%, and this year it is on pace to break that. My initial call was this year would be better than 2020 and on pace with 2023 which had a 24% return, and it seems that may have been undershooting it slightly but in line with another record setting year. Stocks are continuing to rip and will continue as rate cuts continue to come in. It is tough to see a path where asset prices won’t continue to rip and roll in the short term.
On Average, Real Estate is continuing to go up
As is the stock market, the real estate market is continuing to go up as well. The Real Estate ETFs are pumping and continuing to look upwards (see below).
Real estate inventory is still very low, therefore it is a seller’s market which has caused average home sale prices to increase by 8% year over year. This is lower than the way the stock market has ripped but has continued to go up. I was not as bullish on real estate as I was on Bitcoin and the stock market even though I believed it would go up. Seems like that will continue as well.
Bitcoin price will surpass $100k
To the haters, of which there are many, how are you doing? I made this prediction and the price was, well...
Granted, we still have not crossed the $100k mark at the time of this writing BUT we’ve hit $99.5k with over a month left in the year so I’ll do my victory dance. Bitcoin with more cuts and more QE will continue to pop and I’ll call my full price prediction at a later date. I called this WITHOUT knowing that Trump would propose a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and RFK Jr. would join Trump and propose buying Bitcoin for the US Balance Sheet daily. These factors will make for a HUGE 2025, so buckle up folks because we’re here now and about to take off.
🚨 BREAKING 🚨 I started a group where I’ll be diving into my thoughts with 1 on 1 calls and weekly group calls to provide insight on where things are going.
Sign up for a free consultation here: crossthebridge.io
Check out my latest podcast with Wesley where we describe this group:
Join the movement and set up a call: crossthebridge.io
Brandon
Disclosure: The authors of this writing hold positions in cryptocurrency mentioned in this article. That cryptocurrency is Bitcoin. The article was written by Brandon Keys and occasionally a guest writer; it expresses the author's own opinions. They are not receiving compensation for it. The information presented in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way should be construed as financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any stock or cryptocurrency. None of the authors of this article are financial advisors. I encourage all readers to do further research and do your own due diligence before making any investments.