State of Coin: Miner Migration

State of Coin: Week ending 10/15/2021

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In our Friday articles, we take a deep dive into the current state of Bitcoin. We previously published a series debunking the FUD surrounding Bitcoin - you can find those links at the bottom of this article. Every Friday we will continue to publish brief State of the Coin newsletters to keep subscribers up to date on BTC with both on-chain analytics and off-chain news from the Bitcoin industry. For full disclosure, Brandon and Daniel are strong believers in Bitcoin and both have allocated portions of their portfolios to BTC (HODL baby).

Let’s take a look at the State of the Coin

A look off chain:

  • Bakkt partners with Google: Crypto marketplace and custodian Bakkt is partnering with Google to increase the “reach and usability of digital assets to meet rapidly evolving consumer demand.” According to Bakkt CEO Gavin Michael, “partnering with Google Cloud will enable us to continue to build a best-in-class, innovative platform that can undoubtedly scale to meet the needs of millions of users.” 

  • BTC mining moves to the US, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia: New data from Cambridge University shows that BTC mining activity has moved out of China and ended up in The US, Russia, and Kazakhstan. According to their report: “This new data shows the US with a global hashrate share of 35.4% (up from 16.8% at the end of April), Kazakhstan with 18.1% (up from 8.2%), and the Russian Federation with 11% (up from 6.8%). This confirms the hashrate trajectory identified in the last update (to end April 2021) which showed those three countries were already gaining market share prior to the crackdown in China.” This probably comes as no surprise to most of our readers. 

  • Bitwise re-applies for a BTC ETF: Investment firm Bitwise has re-applied for a BTC ETF that, according to Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougon, will hold actual BTC (not BTC derivatives). Bitwise had applied for a similar ETF in 2019 that was denied by the U.S. SEC later that same year. Although denied in late 2019, the SEC placed the proposal on “standby” awaiting further review until Bitwise withdrew the proposal altogether. Bitwise already offers other BTC-exposure funds, but this would be the first fund to actually hold bitcoins. See the original tweet here

  • North Vancouver to heat homes with recycled energy from BTC mining: Canadian cryptocurrency mining company MintGreen has partnered with the Lonsdale Energy Corporation to use energy recycled from BTC mining rigs to heat an estimated 100 residential and commercial buildings in North Vancouver. The operation is set to begin in 2022, so keep an eye out for further news.  

  • Morgan Stanley CEO says BTC is here to stay: While JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon trashes BTC as worthless, other major banks are beginning to see its value. On their Q3 earnings call Morgan Stanley chief executive officer James Gorman said "I don't think crypto is a fad. I don't think it's going to go away." Gorman also said: "I don't know what the value of Bitcoin should or shouldn't be. But these things aren't going away, and the blockchain technology supporting it is obviously very real and powerful."

  • Keep an eye on the macro - inflation is here to stay: The U.S. Federal Reserve released its September data earlier this week. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, the data continue to show high unemployment, economic stagnation, and inflation. In September, the unemployment rate was reported at 4.8% and the consumer price index hit a YoY increase of 5.4% (the largest YoY increase since 2008). As noted in last week’s letter, BTC remains positively related to CPI (as inflation worsens, BTC becomes more valuable) and daily price is now negatively correlated with gold and completely uncorrelated with common market index funds. In other words, BTC is a strong hedge against current inflation. 

We’re always looking for guest writers! If you or someone you know would like to be featured on State of the Coin as a contributor, let us know! You can email us at greencandleit@gmail.com or DM us on Twitter (@Greencandleit)!

A look on chain: 

Let’s take a look at on-chain data from Glassnode!

  • Price update: ATH is within reach! On Friday Uptober 1st price shot up, eventually breaching $50k USD early last week, and hasn’t looked back since. We’ve hovered comfortably over 50k for nearly two weeks and are hopefully building a strong support layer in this range. We are now 521 days post halving with the halving high (and all time high) having occurred at 337 days. In halving cycles 1 and 2, highs occurred at 371 and 525 days, respectively (shown as vertical dashed lines on the chart below). In the last week, price is up 10.9%; in the last month, it is up 26.6%; in the last year, BTC price is up 422%. 

  • S2F Model Update: We currently remain well below the stock-to-flow model. In fact, the model has price on October 14 at $110,097 USD, leaving us roughly $52k away from predicted price. Downward deviation from the model could mean that the model is incorrect. However, it could also indicate that BTC is currently undervalued. In the previous two cycles, the model tended to accurately predict cycle-end price points. If this is the case in the current cycle, be prepared to see 6-digit pricing. Remember, BTC is a long term investment, not a “get rich quick” vehicle. To learn more about the S2F model, check out this article by PlanB.

  • SOPR: The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or more simply: price sold / price paid. Values greater than 1 indicate that coins are being sold for profit (typically bullish) and values less than 1 indicate coins are being sold at a loss (typically bearish). We saw a small spike in SOPR earlier this month following the 50k breach, but it wasn’t nearly to the extent that we saw in late July when price jumped from 29k to 40k over a ten day period. SOPR has now remained above 1 for several consecutive days, indicating some profit taking. 

BTC Meme of the Week! What would the BTC community do without memes? Every week on State of the Coin, we feature our favorite meme of the previous week. If you create or see a meme that you like and want us to consider featuring it, tag us on Twitter or instagram (both @Greencandleit)! As more hype builds around BTC ETFs, it’s worth pointing out that direct HODLing is the only real way to own Bitcoin. @BitcoinLiotta knows:

New to Bitcoin and looking to learn more? Check out our introductory series, where we walk through common misconceptions about the world’s leading cryptocurrency!

  1. What is Bitcoin? 

  2. The price is too high (“I’ve missed the boat”)

  3. BTC uses too much energy

  4. BTC is too volatile

  5. BTC is not physically backed by anything

  6. BTC is used for illegal activity

  7. BTC is not a transactional currency (cannot be used to buy everyday items)

  8. Governments will not allow it or will heavily regulate it

  9. It’s easy to lose access to BTC wallet

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Happy Friday everyone - get after it this weekend!

Brandon and Dan

Disclosure: The authors of this writing hold positions in cryptocurrency mentioned in this article. That cryptocurrency is Bitcoin. The article was written by Daniel Kuhman and Brandon Keys, and it expresses the author's own opinions. They are not receiving compensation for it. The information presented in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way should be construed as financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any stock or cryptocurrency. None of the authors of this article are not financial advisors. We encourage all readers to do further research and do your own due diligence before making any investments.