State of Coin: Tips, Tips, Tips (ft. -Molesy)

State of Coin: Week ending 10/01/2021

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In our Friday articles, we take a deep dive into the current state of Bitcoin. We previously published a series debunking the FUD surrounding Bitcoin - you can find those links at the bottom of this article. Every Friday we will continue to publish brief State of the Coin newsletters to keep subscribers up to date on BTC with both on-chain analytics and off-chain news from the Bitcoin industry. For full disclosure, Brandon and Daniel are strong believers in Bitcoin and both have allocated portions of their portfolios to BTC (HODL baby).

Let’s take a look at the State of the Coin

A look off chain:

  • Verifone will enable Bitcoin payments: Payment-solution giant Verifone announced earlier this week that it will enable consumer Bitcoin payments on in-store and eCommerce Cloud Services in the United States. This new payment solution emerged out of Verifone’s partnership with BitPay, the world’s largest provider of Bitcoin payment services. The new features will roll out to Verifone merchants in the U.S. later this year. Verifone has over 600,000 merchants worldwide and handles over 10.4 billion online and in-store transactions annually.

  • Regulation is coming in the US: Unsurprisingly, the U.S. government continues to signal that they will increase regulations over Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. On Monday, SEC Chair Gary Gensler expressed his wish to increase the agency’s regulatory power over crypto, stating: “ This is not going to end well if it stays outside the regulatory space.” This comes on the heels of explosive debates in the U.S. Senate regarding language surrounding digital asset reporting requirements included in a massive infrastructure bill. Two things are certain: first, Bitcoin is here to stay and second, the U.S. government is working hard to find ways to generate tax revenue from it. 

  • Chamath is bullish: Chamath Palihapitiya, former senior executive at Facebook and billionaire investor, gave CNBC quite an interview earlier this week. In the interview, Chamath told the network that he’s put hundreds of millions of dollars into BTC, that he believes BTC is nearly impossible to kill (e.g., by overreaching regulation or all out bans), and that “it is the most profound iteration of the internet that we've seen.“

  • You can now pay Green Candle in BTC: Ok, this isn’t national news, but we were excited to enable the new BTC tipping feature on Twitter this week. Shoutout to our first few tippers - the feature seems to work relatively seamlessly. Great work from the devs!


Feature of the Week

Every week, we reach out to members of the Bitcoin community to see where they stand on BTC and to ask what they’ve been up to lately. This week we’re happy to share a quick word from @marcusmoles

I have been on this wild bitcoin ride for 5 years now. As the Farmer’s Insurance quote goes - “We know a thing or two, because we've seen a thing or two." 

That being said, I would like to give the class of 2021 twelve lessons. This list is in no particular order. It is what I wish I could tell myself when I started the journey. 

Dear Class of 2021, 

1. Learn to get punched in the face 

The journey is long. People will doubt bitcoin, they will question your investment thesis, there will be very negative news. You must smile through it all and keep yourself centered. 

2. Being born in a bear market is an advantage 

I was born in the bear market of 2018. The experience helped me develop conviction and patience. New investors entering the space today are used to bitcoin in ‘up only’ mode. That will not always be the case. Volatility is the price you pay to get a 200% CAGR and beat all assets. 

3. Learn to run a node and becoming self-sovereign 

I always knew what a node was and loved bitcoin. However, once you put together your own full node, you fall in love with bitcoin. It becomes this beautiful creature as you watch the blocks come in and sync with the other nodes. Running a node brings this whole puzzle together from store of value to medium of exchange to self-sovereignty (i.e., controlling your data, controlling your life, controlling your energy.) 

4. Bitcoin’s definition should be a technology that brings the world together 

Bitcoin eliminates borders making you feel at one with the Earth. This brings a sense of connection to one another. This brings a desire to help and be selfless. Peter McCormack once asked a small group of us at a meet up “How are you helping Bitcoin?” You must help bitcoin succeed, even in a small way. Donate to developers, run a node, write, make videos, build, code, attend events. 

4. Eliminate expenses and buy as much bitcoin as you can 

Make a google sheet (here I made one for you). Write down all your expenses and eliminate things you don’t need. Find ways to buy as much bitcoin as possible every month. Stick to the plan. 

5. Don’t let bitcoin become your full identity 

Have a passion for it, but don’t let the price swings affect your mental health. Make sure you have passions and hobbies outside of crypto. 

6. Don’t use leverage 

I have used leverage before and made a lot of money and lost money. Stick to the spot markets. Crypto goes up enough. 

7. Ethereum isn’t a scam but it is not sound money 

Bitcoin has won the money layer. Everyone else is competing for space. Bitcoin is the base layer on which everything is built. Without bitcoin there is nothing. Without ETH there is bitcoin.

8. Long-term bitcoin beats all assets (most altcoins trend to zero against BTC)

That being said, you can out-perform bitcoin in the short term. Make small bets but keep bitcoin as your main portfolio (85-95%). 

9. It is okay to take profit (sometimes the dollar has strength short-term)

Life isn’t all about bitcoin and holding to your death. That being said, you better be willing to hold bitcoin for at least 5 years. Keep a % of your stack that will never sell no matter what. 

10. The interest isn’t worth the risk 

There will be centralized platforms out there offering interest on your bitcoin. Don’t use them and custody your bitcoin (learn multi-sig as fast as possible). Bitcoin goes up enough on a compounded annual basis. A 3% interest payment is not worth the risk to give up your private keys. 

11. You will be rewarded 

Bitcoin just makes sense as we become a multi-planetary species and create new knowledge/technology. Even you will underestimate what bitcoin will be worth in the future. 

12. Put all your eggs in one basket, and watch that basket 

Forget 401ks, stocks, bonds, gold. If you are young, go all in crypto.

Be sure to follow @marcusmoles and subscribe to his substack to see more from him!

We’re always looking for guest writers! If you or someone you know would like to be featured on State of the Coin as a contributor, let us know! You can email us at greencandleit@gmail.com or DM us on Twitter (@Greencandleit)!


A look on chain: 

Let’s take a look at on-chain data from Glassnode!

  • Price update: Price has been steadily hovering in the $41-43k range for the week. Even prior to the current drop to this price range, a solid level of support had been built here. We are now 508 days post halving with the halving high (and all time high) having occurred at 337 days. In halving cycles 1 and 2, highs occurred at 371 and 525 days, respectively (shown as vertical dashed lines on the chart below). In the last week, price is up 1.8%; in the last month, it is down 10.6%; YTD, BTC price is up 48%. 

  • S2F Model Update: We currently remain well below the stock-to-flow model. In fact, the model has price on October 1 at $109,994 USD, leaving us roughly $66k away from predicted price. Downward deviation from the model could mean that the model is incorrect. However, it could also indicate that BTC is currently undervalued. In the previous two cycles, the model tended to accurately predict cycle-end price points. If this is the case in the current cycle, be prepared to see 6-digit pricing. Remember, BTC is a long term investment, not a “get rich quick” vehicle. To learn more about the S2F model, check out this article by PlanB.

  • SOPR: The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or more simply: price sold / price paid. Values greater than 1 indicate that coins are being sold for profit (typically bullish) and values less than 1 indicate coins are being sold at a loss (typically bearish). SOPR had been hovering slightly above and below 1 consistently for several weeks. Following recent drops, SOPR has bounced back over 1, but we’d like to see it hover just above 1 for a prolonged period of time. In general, SOPR suggests that, even when price drops, traders are not selling at large losses. 


BTC Meme of the Week! What would the BTC community do without memes? Every week on State of the Coin, we feature our favorite meme of the previous week. If you create or see a meme that you like and want us to consider featuring it, tag us on Twitter or instagram (both @Greencandleit)! Here’s one we came across on Twitter this week:


New to Bitcoin and looking to learn more? Check out our introductory series, where we walk through common misconceptions about the world’s leading cryptocurrency!

  1. What is Bitcoin? 

  2. The price is too high (“I’ve missed the boat”)

  3. BTC uses too much energy

  4. BTC is too volatile

  5. BTC is not physically backed by anything

  6. BTC is used for illegal activity

  7. BTC is not a transactional currency (cannot be used to buy everyday items)

  8. Governments will not allow it or will heavily regulate it

  9. It’s easy to lose access to BTC wallet

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Happy Friday everyone - get after it this weekend!

Brandon and Dan

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Disclosure: The authors of this writing hold positions in cryptocurrency mentioned in this article. That cryptocurrency is Bitcoin. The article was written by Daniel Kuhman and Brandon Keys with guest writer Marcus Moles, and it expresses the author's own opinions. They are not receiving compensation for it. The information presented in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way should be construed as financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any stock or cryptocurrency. Brandon, Daniel, and Marcus are not financial advisors. We encourage all readers to do further research and do your own due diligence before making any investments.